Me — Predict a Recession?
I spent last Tuesday at a very interesting conference with investors that have interest in the HCM technology space. For a bunch of folks that don’t work at all in our industry directly, they certainly knew a lot about our market, what interests our customers and the trends in the space. I suppose that’s reasonable because their job is to figure out which of these companies to invest in. Many of them influence large investment portfolios, and make a habit of knowing the companies well before making decisions to buy the stock.
So I expected lots of insightful questions about market opportunities, growth projections and how Lawson intended to differentiate its products. And they didn’t disappoint. But then, without exception (luckily my buddy from Investor Relations, Barbara Doyle, prepared me for this) they asked me if I thought the economy was in a recession. My immediate response – how would I know? I felt as if I had to all of a sudden have some enlightened insight into economic theory, the laws of supply and demand and what the Euro would be trading at by the end of the day.
OK, not really – but I was surprised by the level of interest that they had in what a guy like me had to say on the topic. In fairness, it was mostly about whether we have seen changes in buying behavior (no) or if we were anticipating a substantial shift in customers’ decision making on purchases from us (not yet).
Then I was reading Business Week in the car yesterday, and saw more of the same – everyone on the planet talking about the potential for a recession, each with a different opinion or two about the topic. It got me to wondering: how do we tell the difference between a media/hype-induced recession (I suppose I could have been a contributor to just such an effect during my meetings on Tuesday) and a real one?
I’m sleeping at night because VPs of HR have to be looking at managing talent for the long-term, which will force them to make the kinds of investments that will make their organizations that much more competitive whenever any (possible) economic slowdown comes to an end. It’s discretionary, but strategic – which means it will last longer on the priority list than many other investments of its type.
For me, you have to treat this stuff as nothing more than noise – I can’t control it, and can only react to those events that are tangible. So it’s back to work for me!
